Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.552711 17.749958 20.320969 23.597731 27.732497 32.876763 39.930218
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.905228 15.530097 18.871507 23.575206 30.275287 39.923945 55.862451
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.464015 14.300062 18.128189 23.925060 33.005246 47.814109 77.020402
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.143462 12.953156 16.896541 23.177101 33.717794 52.650966 96.117719
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.315570 12.145420 16.258553 23.122474 35.433398 59.833652 126.272209
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.436470 11.149899 15.186367 22.139223 35.204918 63.053019 150.109836
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.627674 10.174846 14.024828 20.804802 33.977404 63.608279 167.041979
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.997373 9.412203 13.115139 19.769734 33.107579 64.709495 188.294939
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.168265 9.878606 14.214577 22.497814 40.798600 92.374094 407.741905
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.026755 9.837040 14.460011 23.665518 45.466251 115.809257 794.078842
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.560277 9.233902 13.674861 22.648462 44.442703 118.512727 1002.536674
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.319690 8.982718 13.484525 22.829433 46.625975 136.182781 1928.146551
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.997062 8.590947 13.038220 22.474857 47.475349 150.441674 4038.946702
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.742379 8.296431 12.743767 22.413865 49.215848 172.311839 17123.085953
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.559148 8.109183 12.628324 22.735373 52.290900 208.295704 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.273900 7.727029 12.109833 22.041742 51.838353 220.634763 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.085511 7.502147 11.874730 21.991051 53.615974 255.634412 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.819004 7.125177 11.315543 21.078139 52.029668 258.450071 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.535367 6.705757 10.649354 19.836839 48.963789 243.190177 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.298406 6.360197 10.111729 18.872093 46.776186 235.600015 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.431948 6.680889 10.918010 21.411244 59.237663 456.179174 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.407779 6.713549 11.143742 22.494635 66.639697 716.050216 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 4.210114 6.416111 10.659169 21.551128 64.094437 703.435878 NaN